Early Voting Has Already Beaten 2022: More Than 54 Million Ballots Cast Before Election Day
An Associated Press analysis puts early turnout at more than 54 million ballots by November 1 - already above the 45.9 million early votes cast in the whole 2022 midterm cycle, before a single Election Day ballot is counted.
The midterm election is not waiting for Tuesday. More than 54 million Americans had already cast ballots by November 1, according to an Associated Press analysis reported this weekend - a total that has already surpassed the 45.9 million early votes recorded in the entire 2022 midterm cycle, with Election Day itself still to come.
The University of Florida Election Lab count tells the same story on a slightly earlier clock: more than 50.5 million ballots had been cast by Saturday morning, already above the roughly 45.9 million early votes cast in all of 2022. Texas alone recorded more than 7 million early votes, about 1.5 million above its 2022 total. An earlier Scripps News count, at 51.3 million, also sat above the previous benchmark - the counts differ by timing and method, not by direction.
What the early numbers do not show is who is winning. Party-registration figures are available in only some states, and they show who voted, not how they voted. Republicans argue that late-deciding voters and Election Day turnout can preserve their majorities; Democrats argue that the early-vote totals and polling averages point to gains in both chambers. Those are the campaigns' claims - the count begins Tuesday night.
The stakes are the full House and 35 Senate seats. The Senate stands at 53 Republicans and 47 Democrats, and the 35 seats on Tuesday's ballot are 33 regular elections plus special elections in Florida and Ohio for the seats vacated by Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Vice President JD Vance. Polls close first in Georgia and South Carolina at 7 p.m. Eastern on Tuesday, and the early-vote record means a historically large share of the verdict is already in the box when they do.
