Democrats Enter the Midterms 'Confident and Paranoid,' Holding a 9-Point Generic Ballot Lead
Democratic leaders enter Election Day with a 9-point advantage in CNN's Poll of Polls and internal numbers they describe as encouraging — and a deep, stated fear of taking any of it for granted, with Virginia and Maryland figures at the center of the final weekend.
Democratic leaders are closing the midterm campaign in a mood their own campaign chief summed up in two words: confident and paranoid. CNN reported on Sunday that the party enters the midterms with a 9-point advantage over Republicans in the generic congressional ballot, according to CNN's Poll of Polls, and that internal polls described to CNN have leaders smiling about how the campaign seems to be ending — even as they brace for a Tuesday night of races too close to call in advance.
The final weekend ran through the capital region. House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries joined Elaine Luria on stage in Virginia on Saturday; Luria, who flipped Virginia's 2nd Congressional District in 2018, lost it in 2022 and is running to win it back, told the crowd the path to a Democratic majority runs through her district, and early voting data, she said, suggests Democrats are outperforming Republicans. Jeffries, CNN reported, then left for a flight to try to save the seat of Rep. Shomari Figures of Alabama. Rep. Bobby Scott of Virginia, leaving the Luria rally, predicted at least 20 races nationally in which the loser would still take 49 percent of the vote.
"Confident and paranoid" is how Rep. Suzan DelBene, the chair of the House Democrats' campaign arm, described her mindset to CNN. Netting the three seats that would give her party the majority seems a given, she said — and then again, she noted, the majority also felt in reach in the final days two years ago. Her stated paranoia runs to the ways she sees President Donald Trump trying to interfere with the results, and to the economic pain she says she encounters at every campaign stop.
Maryland's Sen. Chris Van Hollen, who chaired the Senate Democrats' campaign arm in 2018, closed CNN's account with a warning drawn from Virginia history: the 2017 Virginia House of Delegates races, where control came down to one seat that ended in a tie and was decided by drawing slips of paper from a bowl — which Republicans won. "I would not rely on these polls," Van Hollen told CNN. "My plea is: Don't take anything for granted, don't let control come down to one campaign."
