Midterm Elections 2026: Republicans Face a Reckoning of Trump's Making, AP Analysis Finds
For President Donald Trump, this week's elections are about him. For his fellow Republicans, the risk is that voters agree - and an Associated Press analysis finds his tariffs, the Iran war and his Washington renovations have complicated their task at every turn.
Midterms almost always serve as a referendum on the president's party, and losses typically ensue. But President Donald Trump's decisions to impose tariffs, start a war and oversee extravagant Washington renovations - largely without congressional consultation - have made it harder for Republicans to navigate those historical headwinds, the Associated Press reported in an analysis published Sunday, two days before Election Day.
Republicans have had one distinct advantage: money. Trump's political groups spent nearly $277 million to boost Republicans since September, a staggering amount that puts this year on pace to be the most expensive midterm ever. But it may not be enough. His import taxes disrupted the agricultural economy and triggered a trade war with Canada, and the war in Iran that he said would be over in weeks continues eight months later with no clear strategy for conclusion. The Iran war is making it exponentially harder for Republicans to keep the House and Senate, Rep. Derrick Van Orden of Wisconsin, one of the most vulnerable House Republicans, said in a debate while noting his support for the effort. Campaigning with Democrats in competitive House races recently in Virginia, former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg argued that the corruption voters have seen is directly connected to the pain they are feeling economically.
About one-third of U.S. adults approve of how Trump is handling the presidency, according to the Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research - lower than President Joe Biden's approval just before the midterms and Trump's own first-term standing of around 40 percent. Democrats have kept up the pressure, spending hundreds of millions on advertising connecting Republicans to Trump. But Democrats face risks of their own, the AP noted: Maryland Gov. Wes Moore warned in an interview that anger against Trump is going to be a waning emotion and that his party has to deliver, and Sen. Elissa Slotkin of Michigan cautioned that voters are not falling in love with Democrats.
